Development of a Self-Report Measure of Prediction in Daily Life: The Prediction-Related Experiences Questionnaire.

PURPOSE: Predictions are complex, multisensory, and dynamic processes involving real-time adjustments based on environmental inputs. Disruptions to prediction abilities have been proposed to underlie characteristics associated with autism. While there is substantial empirical literature related to prediction, the field lacks a self-assessment measure of prediction skills related to daily tasks. Such a measure would be useful to better understand the nature of day-to-day prediction-related activities and characterize these abilities in individuals who struggle with prediction. METHODS: An interdisciplinary mixed-methods approach was utilized to develop and validate a self-report questionnaire of prediction skills for adults, the Prediction-Related Experiences Questionnaire (PRE-Q). Two rounds of online field testing were completed in samples of autistic and neurotypical (NT) adults. Qualitative feedback from a subset of these participants regarding question content and quality was integrated and Rasch modeling of the item responses was applied. RESULTS: The final PRE-Q includes 19 items across 3 domains (Sensory, Motor, Social), with evidence supporting the validity of the measure's 4-point response categories, internal structure, and relationship to other outcome measures associated with prediction. Consistent with models of prediction challenges in autism, autistic participants indicated more prediction-related difficulties than the NT group. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence for the validity of a novel self-report questionnaire designed to measure the day-to-day prediction skills of autistic and non-autistic adults. Future research should focus on characterizing the relationship between the PRE-Q and lab-based measures of prediction, and understanding how the PRE-Q may be used to identify potential areas for clinical supports for individuals with prediction-related challenges.

Autistic Adults Show Intact Learning on a Visuospatial Serial Reaction Time Task.

Some theories have proposed that autistic individuals have difficulty learning predictive relationships. We tested this hypothesis using a serial reaction time task in which participants learned to predict the locations of a repeating sequence of target locations. We conducted a large-sample online study with 61 autistic and 71 neurotypical adults. The autistic group had slower overall reaction times, but demonstrated sequence-specific learning equivalent to the neurotypical group, consistent with other findings of typical procedural memory in autism. The neurotypical group, however, made significantly more prediction-related errors early in the experiment when the stimuli changed from repeated sequences to random locations, suggesting certain limited behavioural differences in the learning or utilization of predictive relationships for autistic adults.

Rhythmic and interval-based temporal orienting in autism.

Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may show secondary sensory and cognitive characteristics, including differences in auditory processing, attention, and, according to a prominent hypothesis, the formulation and utilization of predictions. We explored the overlap of audition, attention, and prediction with an online auditory "temporal orienting" task in which participants utilized predictive timing cues (both rhythmic and interval-based) to improve their detection of faint sounds. We compared an autistic (n = 78) with a nonautistic (n = 83) group, controlling for nonverbal IQ, and used signal detection measures and reaction times to evaluate the effect of valid temporally predictive cues. We hypothesized that temporal orienting would be compromised in autism, but this was not supported by the data: the boost in performance induced by predictability was practically identical for the two groups, except for the small subset of the ASD group with co-occurring attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, who received less benefit from interval-based cueing. However, we found that the presence of a rhythm induced a significantly stronger bias toward reporting target detections in the ASD group at large, suggesting weakened response inhibition during rhythmic entrainment.

Screen time reduction and focus on social engagement in autism spectrum disorder: A pilot study.

BACKGROUND: There is growing concern regarding early screen media exposure and its potential effects on developmental delays including autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, there is little research examining whether interventions can decrease screen media exposure and ASD behaviors among children with ASD. METHODS: Participants were nine children, 18 to 40 months old, with an ASD diagnosis who watched screens at least 2 h per day. Screen viewing history and weekly screen viewing and social interaction were assessed. The intervention involved a parent education program followed by weekly 1 h in-home support visits aimed at replacing screen time with social engagement time over a 6 month period. Child autism symptoms (Brief Observation of Social Communication Change), functional behavior (Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales), and development (Mullen Scales of Early Learning) were assessed before and after intervention; parents completed questionnaires on parental stress (Autism Parenting Stress Index) and their perceptions of the intervention. RESULTS: Children's screen viewing decreased from an average of 5.6 h/day prior to intervention to 5 min/day during the study. Significant improvements were observed in core autism symptoms and parental stress from pre- to post-intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Parent education and training/support to minimize screen time and increase social interaction for young children with ASD was tolerated well by parents and children. These promising preliminary results suggest that further research on early screen media viewing, ASD, and screen reduction intervention is warranted.

Prediction in Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Systematic Review of Empirical Evidence.

According to a recent influential proposal, several phenotypic features of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may be accounted for by differences in predictive skills between individuals with ASD and neurotypical individuals. In this systematic review, we describe results from 47 studies that have empirically tested this hypothesis. We assess the results based on two observable aspects of prediction: learning a pairing between an antecedent and a consequence and responding to an antecedent in a predictive manner. Taken together, these studies suggest distinct differences in both predictive learning and predictive response. Studies documenting differences in learning predictive pairings indicate challenges in detecting such relationships especially when predictive features of an antecedent have low salience or consistency, and studies showing differences in habituation and perceptual adaptation suggest low-level predictive processing differences in ASD. These challenges may account for the observed differences in the influence of predictive priors, in spontaneous predictive movement or gaze, and in social prediction. An important goal for future research will be to better define and constrain the broad domain-general hypothesis by testing multiple types of prediction within the same individuals. Additional promising avenues include studying prediction within naturalistic contexts and assessing the effect of prediction-based intervention on supporting functional outcomes for individuals with ASD. LAY SUMMARY: Researchers have suggested that many features of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may be explained by differences in the prediction skills of people with ASD. We review results from 47 studies. These studies suggest that ASD may be associated with differences in the learning of predictive pairings (e.g., learning cause and effect) and in low-level predictive processing in the brain (e.g., processing repeated sounds). These findings lay the groundwork for research that can improve our understanding of ASD and inform interventions. Autism Res 2021, 14: 604-630. © 2021 International Society for Autism Research and Wiley Periodicals LLC.